There’s a reason that Ron Paul did so well in New Hampshire in 2012. It’s why Mitt Romney won the state and why Jon Huntsman got more votes there than the rest of the states combined. New Hampshire is a state that values liberty, small government, and individual freedoms. These known preferences are the reason that the huge amount of polling support for Donald Trump is so perplexing.
In essence, Donald Trump represents the exact opposite of what New Hampshire primary voters have traditionally embraced. Outside of his immigration policy, he goes squarely against the principles that have made New Hampshire the enigma of the Northeast for years. It could be that immigration is the most important topic for New Hampshire voters this year, but even then his actual stance is more liberal than some of the candidates, Ted Cruz in particular. Trump’s “touchback amnesty” plan simply doesn’t seem like the type that fits in a New Hampshire voter’s preferences.
Small government definitely cannot be as important to many New Hampshire voters as it once was. Trump has never promised to reduce the federal government’s size or scope. In fact, his policy proposals demand an expansion of federal government intervention over the states and a dramatic increase in spending to make his plans for socialized medicine, increased military spending, infrastructure upgrades, and of course his famous wall (though that will allegedly be free since he’ll make Mexico forgive our debt to them and pay for the wall that they don’t want).
New Hampshire has never been a state that embraces the authoritarian style of government that Trump has proposed. Throughout the state’s history, the people have rebelled against oppressive federal government intrusions. What’s changed? What has compelled the state to reverse it’s desire for small-government conservatives in four short years?
There are two working theories being tossed back and forth among some of the pundits, particularly on talk radio…
Trump’s Sales Pitch is Confusing
The standard theory is that Trump has mesmerized his audience with a sales pitch that promotes concepts of strength rather than strong conservative concepts. Voters in New Hampshire are embracing the anti-establishment rhetoric without realizing how embedded within the establishment that Trump really is.
He has a pseudo-conservative immigration plan to appeal to the right-wing voters in the state while supporting moderate/liberal ideas such as affirmative action, a progressive tax plan, socialized medicine, and entitlements. He doesn’t align with his supporters on the issues because he doesn’t need their alignment. He needs them to embrace him as a winner who wins. He needs them to latch onto their inner authoritarian to embrace a strong talker telling them what to do and how to think.
In other words, he has his supporters seeing what they want to see in him. If they’re conservative, he wants them to see him as a conservative (which, of course, he’s absolutely not).
— JD Rucker (@0boy) February 7, 2016
If a supporter is a moderate, he wants them to see him as a moderate and to forgive his more extreme views.
Somehow, it doesn’t add up. New Hampshire, the state that launched the Ronald Reagan Revolution in 1980 and that came relatively close to giving Ron Paul the oomph he needed in 2012, just doesn’t seem like the type of state that would embrace an anti-Reagan, anti-Paul candidate like Trump regardless of how good his sales pitch was. That’s why I’m personally leaning towards theory #2…
Liberal Independents are Tipping the Scale
Bernie Sanders is going to win New Hampshire. That’s pretty much a foregone conclusion at this point. This leaves the savvy, highly organized liberal vote manipulating machine in New Hampshire to pick their opponent. They’ve chosen Trump.
It’s hard for Republicans to hear this, but they have to face reality. Knowing that around 40% of the voters are Independents that can vote in either primary, liberals will be using their vote to tip the scale towards the candidate they’d most desire for the Democrat to face in the general election. Outside of Trump’s own supporters, he is considered to be the easiest GOP candidate for either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders to beat. With a net favorability rating lower than any nominee in history and much lower than any of his GOP competitors, the liberals realize that Trump would lose handily to either Democratic candidate.
— @towman883 (@9a1e6c8a99984e2) February 2, 2016
Liberals and their mainstream media puppets are hoping beyond all hope that they can manipulate the New Hampshire primary to make Trump the GOP winner. Moderates have several choices and conservatives have a much better choice. The real question is whether or not liberal independents will help boost their opponent of choice, Trump, for a general election loss.