There’s a chance that John Kasich could win Michigan. The chances are very slim, but they exist based upon recent polling and the fact that it’s his neighboring state. It’s also moderate enough to represent his “home turf” as he likes to say on the campaign trail. With zero wins going into Super Tuesday 2, he needs to win or he needs to get out.
Some would say that he should stay in to prevent Donald Trump from getting a win in Ohio. I disagree. Granted, I support Ted Cruz so it might seem like a conflict of interests to believe that giving all of Ohio’s delegates to Trump would be a good thing, but the dynamic in all of the remaining states means that a Kasich-free primary (as well as a Rubio-free primary) would favor Cruz in every other primary outside of Ohio. Considering North Carolina, Illinois, and Missouri are still up for grabs, abandoning Ohio might be the losing battle that wins the war.
Kasich seems to be bent on the idea that he can do well in a brokered convention. This is a joke. Assuming that the RNC pulled down Rule 40b that prevents anyone without a majority of delegates in eight states from even being on the ballot, Kasich would still be third if not fourth in the Establishment’s pecking order. They’re clearly trying to open the door for either Mitt Romney or Paul Ryan to be the nominee despite protestations from the latter, which means that Kasich is still out even if he stays in and wins a couple of states.
Then, there’s the VP spot. Kasich may be angling to be the Vice President for either Trump (likely) or Cruz (unlikely). By delivering Ohio, he’d be a good choice. Unfortunately, it the becomes a question of personal ambition over what’s best for the country. Yes, he could get a spot next to Trump if he wins Ohio, but he may be dooming the party to a loss to Hillary Clinton in the process. He’s not as charismatic as Sarah Palin, so he’ll be relegated to living out his term as Ohio governor before fading into political obscurity.
IF, on the other hand, he helps Cruz get the nomination by dropping out after losing in Michigan, then he could have a bright future in a Cruz administration. Cruz would beat Clinton if he’s able to beat Trump and Kasich might be the person to make both happen. Then again, he could win Michigan If that happens, all of this logic is out the window.
My prediction: Kasich comes in third in Michigan behind a dominant Trump and a surprisingly strong Cruz. The momentum is on Cruz’s side, but it would certainly help if Kasich were to bow out and make room for the real players to duke it out head-to-head.